Wednesday, 28 October 2009

Stocks and volatility recap

Last forecast of US equity medium-term top and volatility bottom was correct. Stocks never moved significantly higher than mid-October price level, and have been declining during the last few sessions.





Extension point in itself is not a forecast of a price pull-back, it only indicates that the current trend is ending. ChaosMonitor users could observe several additional signals last week alerting them to the likely scenario of coming stock prices weakness. For example, NASDAQ index showed a compression signals on 1 hour scale (a critical point of extreme instability, normally appearing before a new trend) followed by the price moving downwards.


ChaosMonitor tracks all major stock indices and benchmark stocks across the world, on the timescales from 15 minutes to weekly. Not every instrument presents us with identifiable critical point at a given time. But analysis of multiple instruments/timescales often yields useful information about the likely direction and timing of asset class price changes caused by nonlinear dynamics of the market system (as opposed to those caused by macro factors and unexpected news).

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