There are top extension signals on a number of European stock indices on 30 minutes to 1 hour timescale. Current short-term bullish trend is likely to pause or correct here.
Tuesday, 2 March 2010
Intraday: Equities to stop rising for several hours
Thursday, 25 February 2010
Bunds rally likely to continue for several months
Labels:
Asset Allocation,
Commodities,
Daily,
Fixed Income,
Overview
In January we issued a forecast of Euro Bunds rally that should last several months well into 2010. The market critical point on a weekly timescale is being followed by a strong upward move (on price). This is likely to be the beginning of a significant bullish trend for bonds.
Two commodity futures have also recently passed through a compression critical point and are developing bearish trend that is likely to continue for several weeks.
Two commodity futures have also recently passed through a compression critical point and are developing bearish trend that is likely to continue for several weeks.
Friday, 29 January 2010
Overview: spotlight on Euro fixed income, commodities
Labels:
Asset Allocation,
Commodities,
Daily,
Fixed Income
Fixed income
There has been an important critical point on a weekly time-scale for European Bunds. A compression signal a few weeks ago was followed by an upward move in price. From such a critical point it is common for markets to develop a new strong trend. The direction of this new trend is less certain (please read 'Understanding ChaosMonitor signals'). Currently the more likely scenario is that it shall continue in its initial direction (up).
US debt does not offer such a strongly long-term bullish signal (on price), but it is likely to benefit as well, should the rally in Bunds take place. It is important to note that this is a long-term signal with several months horizon, there will be many other market opportunities on a shorter time-scale in the meantime.
Commodities
S&P GSCI Commodity Index has shown a cluster of bottom extension signals. These indicate that current down trend is becoming unsustainable. Given 4 hour time-scale, the index is expected to range-trade (or rebound) for 3-4 trading days at least. Note: S&P GSCI index is composed of mostly energy futures (about 70%).
Equities
There are no recent long-term critical point signals for equities asset class. We should expect general equities weakness in the months ahead, given strong probability of the fixed income rally mentioned above. On the daily time-scale currently there is a number of mixed signals from Asian and European equity indices. There has been several intra-day trading opportunities during past few days that we cover in our "intraday alerts" email newsletter and Intraday section of this blog.
There has been an important critical point on a weekly time-scale for European Bunds. A compression signal a few weeks ago was followed by an upward move in price. From such a critical point it is common for markets to develop a new strong trend. The direction of this new trend is less certain (please read 'Understanding ChaosMonitor signals'). Currently the more likely scenario is that it shall continue in its initial direction (up).
US debt does not offer such a strongly long-term bullish signal (on price), but it is likely to benefit as well, should the rally in Bunds take place. It is important to note that this is a long-term signal with several months horizon, there will be many other market opportunities on a shorter time-scale in the meantime.
Commodities
S&P GSCI Commodity Index has shown a cluster of bottom extension signals. These indicate that current down trend is becoming unsustainable. Given 4 hour time-scale, the index is expected to range-trade (or rebound) for 3-4 trading days at least. Note: S&P GSCI index is composed of mostly energy futures (about 70%).
Equities
There are no recent long-term critical point signals for equities asset class. We should expect general equities weakness in the months ahead, given strong probability of the fixed income rally mentioned above. On the daily time-scale currently there is a number of mixed signals from Asian and European equity indices. There has been several intra-day trading opportunities during past few days that we cover in our "intraday alerts" email newsletter and Intraday section of this blog.
Thursday, 28 January 2010
Intraday: Equities to halt fall for a few hours
Extension signal on NASDAQ100 futures means that current decline is becoming unsustainable and the market is likely to pause (or rebound) here for a few hours (given this 30 min timescale).
Interestingly, NASDAQ also provided us with advanced warning of this current equity
weakness. It displayed a
compression signal which was starting to break down, thus signalling start of a large directional move.
Interestingly, NASDAQ also provided us with advanced warning of this current equity
weakness. It displayed a
compression signal which was starting to break down, thus signalling start of a large directional move.
Intraday: today's compression signal on equities
Earlier today ChaosMonitor users have observed a compression signal on AEX European index, which provided an advance warning to the current US equities sellof. This supports our advice to follow all benchmark stock indices on ChaosMonitor, even less known ones. They will be correlated to your individual stocks or stock index futures you are trading in a very significant way.
Wednesday, 27 January 2010
Intraday: today's oil futures signal recap
This morning ChaosMonitor warned about likely sharp decline in oil futures price (compression signal on 1 hour time-scale). Then after 2% drop in price the model advised that the move is about to halt (extension on 15 min time-scale below).
Intraday: Oil futures weakness likely -- 1-2 days
Labels:
Commodities,
Intraday
We have identified a compression signal on oil futures, which is being
followed by a downward move. Risk of a short-term trend developing from
here, it is more likely to continue in its initial direction.
followed by a downward move. Risk of a short-term trend developing from
here, it is more likely to continue in its initial direction.
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= large price move next
or 
= this price move ends